Housing Price Redux
House price data has always been a bit of an issue in Australia. Unfortunately, we don’t have a great site like Zillow to provide good house price data. Our local equivalents, Domain and Realestate.com do provide some historical data, but not with enough granularity to assess the impact on my house.
I have been using data from Your Investment Property, which draws its data from CoreLogic. However, they don’t have good monthly movement data. They only seem to have year to date movements, which meant that there is a significant delay in adjusting for house prices. It also meant that we caught the final upswing in house prices in 2017, when house prices had actually started to fall by that stage.
Using their monthly price movements, it clearly shows an upswing in house prices until early 2018 and then a fall. However, because it uses year to date data, I wasn’t confident in the price moves.
So, I redid our house price calculation using ABS data and CoreLogic data where available. The ABS produces a quarterly index of house price movements, split out by capital cities and dwelling type. I used Sydney, established house price data as the basement of the movement. The downside to this data is that a) it only comes out quarterly and b) its released months after the quarter end. For example, the Dec 18 data will only be released in mid March 2019.
To fill in the gaps, I used the CoreLogic daily price index for Sydney. When I compared the monthly movements back to ABS data, it appears pretty close.
This new price movements gave a very different answer to what I originally had. See below.
Is this correct? I’m not entirely sure. There hasn’t been many sales recently in my local area. Looking at a few houses that have sold in the past 6 months, many of them had larger land areas than we have, so should sell for a higher valuation. Also, the index used is Sydney wide and so doesn’t take into consideration regional differences in values. Still, its an interesting comparison.